Apple raised the iPhone 16 by €150 overnight. The market took a week to follow.
On 9 September 2026, Apple moved the iPhone 16 (128 GB) from €869 to €1,019 in France. Our daily, point-in-time observations show how retailers reacted — and what that means for anyone valuing a claim after the fact.
Three months of daily observations, one structural break.
The shaded band shows the range of new-condition prices observed across merchants each day. The gold line is the market reference. The red line is the manufacturer's catalogue price.
iPhone 16 · 128 GB · New · France
1 Jul – 24 Sep 2026 · daily snapshotWho moved, and when.
One price per merchant per day — the lowest new-condition offer. Each row is the snapshot collected that morning, reflecting prices published the previous day.
| Snapshot | Manufacturer | Retailer A | Retailer B | Retailer C | Reference | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Sep | 869.00 | 869.00 | 869.00 | 841.00 | 862.00 | Stable market |
| 9 Sep | 869.00 | 869.00 | 869.00 | 841.00 | 862.00 | Keynote day |
| 10 Sep | 1,019.00 | 869.00 | 869.00 | — | 919.00 | Catalogue +€150 |
| 11–16 Sep | 1,019.00 | 1,019.00 | 1,019.00 | 841.00 | 974.50 | A & B align; C holds old price |
| 17–18 Sep | 1,019.00 | 1,019.00 | 1,019.00 | — | 1,019.00 | C not observed |
| 19–21 Sep | 1,019.00 | 1,019.00 | 1,019.00 | 998.99 | 1,014.00 | C re-prices |
| 23–24 Sep | 1,019.00 | 1,019.00 | 1,019.00 | 984.99 | 1,010.50 | New equilibrium |
A catalogue change is not a market change — at least not immediately.
The manufacturer moves first
The catalogue price rises by 17.3% in a single evening. The next morning's snapshot captures it.
Most retailers follow
Two of three retailers align on the new catalogue price within 48 hours.
One retailer lags
A third retailer keeps selling at €841 — 17.5% below the new catalogue — for a full week before re-pricing.
Two ways to get the value wrong — measured on real data.
A phone is lost on 8 September. The file is handled on 17 September, using the price observed that day.
The asset did not change. The date used to value it did.
A phone is lost on 12 September and reimbursed at the manufacturer's catalogue price.
+4.6% above the market reference, +21.2% above the lowest new offer available that day.
Transparent about the method — and its limits.
Method
- Daily collection, snapshot each morning around 06:00 CET
- Every raw observation is stored on the day it is collected — none imported retroactively
- New condition only; refurbished offers excluded
- One price per merchant per day (lowest new offer), so a merchant listing several colours counts once
- Market reference = mean of merchant prices; range = min – max
Limits
- 3 to 4 merchants observed per day for this variant
- Major marketplaces are not part of this variant's panel; their prices may differ
- Stock availability is not verified for each offer
- A merchant missing on a given day is excluded from that day's reference
- Case figures illustrate the method; they are not a recommendation for any specific claim
Would your historical claims pass the same test?
Give us 20 anonymized historical cases. We reconstruct the T-1 market reference for each one and measure the gap with the value you retained.